Farmer strategies for adapting to climate change in Zambia

Welcome to Farming is a Business, your weekly program on successful farming. My name is Filius Chalo Jere, and I’m here with my co-presenter, Ndabile Liche. Together, we aim to deliver timely farming information that can improve your farm productivity and enhance your household food security and income.

Indeed, my name is Ndabile Liche, ensuring that there is always gender balance in the presentation of your favourite farming program. Please have your notebooks and pens ready. Also, fine tune your radios because our topic today is especially important for your farming well-being.

Why is today’s topic especially important, Ndabile?

Like everyone the world over, farmers in Zambia are facing the dire situation of climate change. Many have heard about it and experienced its effects, but maybe not everyone knows what it really is and its serious impact on farming and people’s livelihoods.

I always identify with farmers because of the smallholding that I cultivate in the village. However, I am often just as ignorant as they are on issues such as climate change, and also just as anxious to know what exactly it is. Please kindly fill us in, Ndabile.

Indeed, I will. Please think backwards to our early school days and compare the weather in those days to the weather today. You will realize that there has been a lot of change. It has been gradual, but definitely our climate has changed over the years.

Yes, looking back that far, there has been some significant change in the climate. I remember back in the sixties, winter often came with drizzles and was so cold we had flu and running noses. Our fingers were often too numb to hold our pencils properly.

Yes, school children suffered in winter. But one thing in particular has changed: The weather used to be so predictable that farmers knew exactly when to prepare their fields and sow their seeds, when to hoist their bee-hives, and when to harvest their honey.

What has changed?

The rainy season has shifted to later in November or even December. Sometimes the first rains come around mid-November and hoodwink some farmers into sowing their seeds. Unfortunately, the rains may stop abruptly soon after germination and the sun comes back with a vengeance and scorches the poor seedlings.

It’s very distressing for farmers when that happens. Many cannot afford to buy more seed to replant because it is expensive. Instead, some resort to using recycled seed which results in reduced yields. But what has caused the climate to change in this manner?

The changes are caused by human activities that emit what are called greenhouse gases. Greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide and methane persist in the atmosphere and reflect heat back to the surface of the planet, increasing global warming. Just like the roof of a greenhouse reflects heat back to the plants inside. These greenhouse gases come—for example—from burning “fossil fuels”: substances such as oil, gas, and coal. And they are emitted to the atmosphere during many activities, such as manufacturing, mining, and yes, farming.

This paints a bleak picture for humankind. Is anything being done to correct the situation?

Ultimately, what needs to be done is to reduce the behaviours that contribute towards climate change. It’s important to note that countries in the Global North are mostly responsible for climate change because they have historically and, for the most part, also currently emit the most greenhouse gases.

Use renewable energy, reduce deforestation, reduce industrial pollution. Reduce forest fires. Is that possible?

Yes, and from time to time, countries meet to discuss ways of dealing with this. Various research initiatives have also been carried out to find out the causes and ways to reverse or reduce the impact.

Is it just the Western countries doing something about this while in Africa we just sit and watch?

No, Africa is very involved! Even though African countries didn’t historically emit nearly as much greenhouse gases as more industrialized nations, it would be pointless to undertake the effort without Africa. However, African countries are heavily affected by climate change and sometimes the impacts are even stronger than in the Global North. It was for this reason that the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, or PIK, conducted research in selected sub-Saharan countries. Zambia was one of the countries where the research was done.

What was the objective of the research in Zambia?

The objective was to identify how the Zambian climate is expected to change, what impact that will have on crops and agricultural areas, and to evaluate two practices—which were identified by stakeholders in the study process—to adapt to climate change. The study does not provide silver-bullet solutions. Rather, it evaluates possible pathways for action within the wider context of building climate-resilient agri-food systems.

Tell me more.

Zambia is vulnerable to climate change in part because in Zambia, many farmers depend on rain-fed farming.

Does that make them more vulnerable to climate change?

Yes. As we noted above, the pattern of rainy seasons has changed and become unpredictable.

And this is all due to climate change?

Maybe not all, but climate change is the biggest culprit. PIK’s research indicates that until 2080, there is likely to be an increase in temperature of about 2 to 4°C all over Zambia compared to 1850, which represents the pre-industrial era of the Global North. Also, the number of very hot days, with temperatures over 35 degrees, is predicted to increase in all parts of the country, with southwestern Zambia showing the strongest increase.

What about rainfall? Is that predicted to change too?

The study predicted are big variations within the country. The most northerly parts of the country will experience a slight increase in rainfall, while the south and west will show a decrease in rainfall and increasingly dry conditions. Heavy rainfall events, which can cause flooding and crop damage, are predicted to increase in the north and decrease in the western and southern parts of the country. In general, the prediction is that the weather will be more intense both in terms of extremely dry conditions and extremely wet conditions.

How will this affect the major crops in Zambia?

The news is not good. For sorghum, it’s predicted that, by 2050, yields will drop across the country by 6-12%. However, these are national averages. Local crop losses, for example in the south, could be much higher. For maize losses will be even bigger, at 21-35%. Sorghum is more resilient to climate change than other cereals and will suffer less yield losses.

Climate change will also affect how much land in Zambia is suitable for crop production. Less land is expected to be suitable for maize and sorghum production, though there will be no change for groundnut. Currently, northern Zambia is more favourable for sorghum, maize, and groundnut production than southern Zambia. Climate change will intensify this difference, assuming that there are no changes in farming practices or agricultural policies to counteract it.

We know how critical water is for farming. How is climate change expected to affect the availability of water?

It’s not only important for farming, but also for biodiversity, energy security, and other reasons. PIK’s study looked at how climate change will impact water availability in the Kafue catchment and parts of the Zambezi. In those areas, it’s expected that the demand for water will increase because of rising temperatures from climate change, at the same time as there will be a decrease in water availability. For agriculture, this means that there will be less potential for irrigated farming.

These are some of the reasons we should be concerned about the impacts of climate change, which is predicted to go from bad to worse unless farmers use effective adaptation practices. And that’s why PIK’s research evaluated two adaptation practices that were highlighted in stakeholder discussions.

Which practices are those?

Early warning systems and conservation agriculture.

Ok. Let’s start with early warning systems. What are early warning systems and how can they help farmers adapt to climate change?

Early warning systems are about using integrated communication systems to help communities, in this case farmers, to get advance warning about impending weather hazards like droughts, storms, or floods. When farmers have early warning, they can take actions that minimize damage and loss.

So that would mean that farmers must be in regular contact with relevant farming institutions, including meteorological organizations, for information on how the weather might change.

Exactly. Information on climate hazards is also distributed via radio or phone, but not everyone has the same access to these information channels. For example, women’s ability to access and benefit from early warning systems is different from men. Studies have shown that women use fewer technological communication channels than men, and women’s childcare and household responsibilities hinder their ability to listen closely to radio programs that broadcast early warnings.

That’s very important to keep in mind. As well as remembering the special barriers faced by women, we broadcasters should remain in touch with meteorological organizations and other agencies and organizations that have important information to pass along to farmers.

Can you give me a little more information on how such an early warning system might work?

Certainly. For example, when there is an early warning for dry conditions, approaches such as PICSA, or Participatory Integrated Climate Services for Agriculture, can be used to discuss with farmers what to do so that farmers can still grow their crops, maintain their livestock, or get support in other livelihood decisions. PICSA has been successful in many countries, including some African countries.

How does PICSA work?

Together with field staff, farmers analyze the risks that climate change poses to their crops, livestock, and livelihood activities. During the PICSA process, farmers then identify possible actions related to each of those activities. The farmers then make an informed choice about which options are best suited to their individual context. Their context would include the size of their household, their finances and education, the availability of and access to land, their soil types and soil fertility, their livestock holdings, and many other factors. So, as part of the PICSA process, different farmers would choose and implement very different adaptation measures.

Sounds promising. Does it work?

Studies have shown that it helped boost farmers’ ability to adapt to the risks of climate change and climate variability. PICSA participants were more likely to actively consider seasonal weather forecasts when making farm decisions, and twice as likely to diversify their crops or make other changes to their cropping. There is also evidence that approaches like PICSA have helped improve women’s role in agricultural production and their position in households, partly due to their enhanced climate knowledge, and higher production and income levels.

Sounds good. But projects and training are expensive. Is it cost-effective? Do the benefits outweigh the costs to farmers?

Since PICSA has been used in certain areas of the country, but there’s no nationwide program, we cannot be certain about this. But the research done by PIK suggests that, if Zambian farmers participate in a PICSA program and make good adaptation choices for their own individual contexts, it will be highly profitable for them.

Ok, we’ve talked about early warning systems. You mentioned that the report also evaluates conservation agriculture. Tell me more about it.

Conservation agriculture includes a variety of practices. Some of the key ones are minimum/ or no soil tillage, organic ground cover with crop residues or cover crops, and crop rotations. In Zambia, conservation agriculture is already integrated into agricultural and food security policies, as well as policies to mitigate the impacts of climate change. And long-term studies show that conservation agriculture can nearly double crop yields compared to conventional farming practices.

But getting the mass of small-scale farmers to adopt conservation agriculture has been a challenge in Zambia, as elsewhere. In Zambia, the barriers to adoption include poor access to finance and to input and output markets, and lack of capacity building. Actually, the rate of adoption of conservation agriculture varies by practice. While more than half of small-scale farmers in Zambia retain crop residues in their fields, only about 8% minimally disturb the soil or practice crop rotation with legumes.

Also, research in Zambia and elsewhere shows that male-headed households are more likely to adopt conservation agriculture then female-headed households, and that adoption of conservation agriculture can increase women’s workload, especially for the types of labour-intensive tasks women are often involved in. So, while conservation agriculture practices can help increase yields and income, women do not always enjoy these benefits.

Did PIK do any research on how adopting different conservation agriculture practices would affect yields?

Yes, they looked at how minimally disturbing the soil would impact sorghum yields, both under current climatic conditions, and into the future. They found that, under current climatic conditions, minimally disturbing the soil would increase sorghum yields nationally by 11% compared to conventional tillage. The greatest increases in yield would be expected in the driest areas in southern Zambia, with 25-30% boosts in production, while no yield increases were expected in the northern plains.

Because climate change is expected to reduce the potential for irrigated farming in these dry areas, this increase in yields is very important. It could contribute to increasing the amount of water available to plants without depleting surface or groundwater.

And these yield increases would continue indefinitely?

With the increasing impact of climate change towards the end of the century, conservation agriculture practices might not be sufficient, and, with yields decreasing, there may be pressure to further expand farm production into forests to cope.

It’s important to remember, however, that, as well as boosting yields, income, and food security, conservation agriculture has many other benefits. It increases biodiversity by diversifying crop production and it can mitigate climate change because reduced tillage and retaining crop residues on the soil surface can increase soil carbon sequestration. But these benefits emerge after some years of improving soil structure and fertility with conservation agriculture practices.

So, in the near term, adopting these practices can help mitigate the impacts of climate change and even increase sorghum yields, particularly in the drier areas of southern Zambia. But, towards the end of the country, conservation agriculture may need to be integrated with other sustainable intensification practices and good land management.

Doubtlessly, today’s topic is very broad, and we could talk much longer. But thanks for giving us a summary of the research conducted by PIK. Can you please give a recap in order to refresh our listeners? In a nutshell, what are the main issues we covered on this program about how farmers can adapt to climate change?

We talked about the main drivers of climate change, which are human activities—and then reported on the results of a scientific study conducted by the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research. The study found that the climate in Zambia will continue to get hotter, with average temperatures increasing by about 2 degrees by 2050, and with changes in annual rainfall and increased extreme rainfall events. This will result in yield losses for both sorghum and, especially, maize, across the country. Finally, the study evaluates two strategies or practices for farmers to adapt to the impacts of future climate change. Early warning systems can enable farmers to plan their individual responses to the impacts of climate change and to get up-to-date information on extreme weather events. The second practice was conservation agriculture, in particular, minimal soil disturbance and using crop residues and cover crops to ensure constant ground cover. The recommendations that work best for individual farmers will depend on their exact individual situation. It is very important that farmers adapt to climate change simply because climate change will seriously impact farming. So we need to act as soon as possible!

That’s a very neat wrap up, Ndabile. It is my hope that our listeners have picked a point or two on climate change, what drives it, and how we can adapt, in particular in Zambia. With that, we take leave of the program. My name is Filius Chalo Jere, your presenter on Farming is a Business until next week.

And I am your women’s voice, Ndabile Liche, also taking my leave. But please make an appointment with Farming is a Business next week because it is your dependable source for appropriate and timely farming information that will enhance your household food security and income.

OUTRO SIGTUNE