Farmer strategies for adapting to climate change in Cameroon

Good morning, listeners.

Good morning, everyone. Today we are going to talk about a topic that every farmer is talking about – the changing weather. We’re going to talk about climate change – what it will mean for farmers in Cameroon, and exactly what they can do to best adapt to it.

That’s right. And here’s my own prediction about climate change: Right now, every African farmer is familiar with the idea!

(LAUGHTER) Yes, they are! And they have probably seen evidence that the climate is changing all around them. Climate change is an everyday reality. Average temperatures in Cameroon have risen about three-quarters of a degree over the past forty years. Annual rainfall has also changed, though in different ways in different regions of the country. The amount of rainfall has decreased in the most southerly parts of the country and in parts of the west, has increased in most of the north, and remained stable in the rest of the country.

Thanks for setting the stage! Because, today, we are going to talk about how the climate will change and how this is going to impact agriculture in Cameroon over the next 30 years and beyond. And then we are going to present some farming methods that could help Cameroonian farmers adapt to the changing climate.

Like other countries in sub-Saharan Africa, Cameroon already faces climate-related risks and damage such as floods, droughts, and soil erosion. Extreme weather events already cause severe losses for farmers, damaging crops and leaching nutrients from the soil. So do pest and disease problems. Climate change worsens these risks, especially the risk of extreme drought in the Sahel region of the country and flooding in coastal areas.

The economy of Cameroon is dominated by the agriculture, livestock, and fishing sector, which employs more than 60% of the working population, represents 17% of GDP in 2021, and is strongly dependent on suitable weather. Agricultural activities in the country are highly sensitive to temperature increases, heat waves, and droughts, making farming the most vulnerable sector to the effects of climate change.

That’s right. To explore these issues, a German organization called the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research—in short, PIK—conducted some scientific research that asked two questions: First, how is the Cameroonian climate likely to change over the next 30 years and beyond? And second, how well can certain agricultural practices help farmers best adapt to the new weather patterns while ensuring that they produce enough food and income to support their families?

Those are two very important questions. You said the scientists looked at how the weather will change. So, according to the study, how will the weather in Cameroon change over the next 30 years? Let’s start with temperature. How will the temperature change over the next 30 years?

As I mentioned, average temperatures have already risen by about three-quarters of a degree in the last forty years, with the highest increases in the north. This trend is expected to continue. The average annual temperature is projected to increase by 1.1°- 1.5°C by 2050, compared to 2004. Also, it is expected that the number of very hot days, days when the temperature exceeds 35 degrees C, will increase across the whole country, except in the highlands.

And what about rainfall?

The average annual rainfall is also predicted to increase, although this is not as certain as the prediction about increased temperatures. There will likely also be an increased number of extreme rainfall events.

But, like every other prediction, what actually happens to the rainfall will depend on how much action is taken across the planet in the near future to reduce the emissions of greenhouse gases that are driving climate change. And this is of course, mostly the responsibility of the Global North.

You said that the average temperature is expected to rise by 1.1 to 1.5 degrees by 2050. Will that make a big difference? I am not sure I would notice if the average day was one or one-and-a-half degrees hotter. Will it make any real difference to farmers?

Actually, 1.1 to 1.5 degrees can make a great deal of difference. And keep in mind that this is just the national average; locally and temporarily, temperature can be much higher. Especially in the north. That amount of extra heat could easily, for example, reduce crop yields, though not all crops will be affected in the same way.

Ok, so it sounds like by 2050, the weather in Cameroon will be hotter on average, we’ll have more days with extreme heat, and there may be increased rainfall, depending on what region of the country you live in. How will this affect farmers?

Let’s start by looking at maize farmers. Maize is one of the most climate-sensitive crops in Cameroon. It’s also one of the most important crops, but in Cameroon the suitability of land for growing maize is expected to decrease with climate change, especially in the north. Yields are also expected to decrease, with losses that can locally reach up to 40% by 2050, and much greater losses by the end of the century. And one other thing: it’s important to remember that, in Cameroon, maize is cultivated and processed mainly by women, and women farmers are both more vulnerable to climate change and face bigger challenges adapting to it.

Are there any strategies that maize farmers can use to counter these losses?

Yes. Some improved varieties, especially heat-tolerant varieties, provide better and more stable yields, and better resistance to increased temperatures. Planting new varieties and managing them more effectively might be able to offset the yield losses caused by climate change by almost 40%.

Heat-tolerant varieties resist drought by providing canopy cover more quickly, shading the soil and reducing the loss of soil moisture. But the availability of improved varieties that are known to succeed in local conditions is poor in Cameroon, especially in remote, rural areas.

Does this mean that, for those farmers with access to these improved, heat-tolerant varieties, maize yields will NOT decrease with climate change?

Yields for these varieties will either remain stable or actually increase over the next few decades before falling after 2050, although even after 2050, they will yield much better than other varieties.

But it depends on what part of the country you’re in. Every region has very specific conditions, and it’s important to consider the local context and try out these practices so you can discover what works best in local conditions and best meets local needs.

Planting these improved varieties does involve some costs, but PIK’s study found that the financial benefits of planting improved varieties were more than double the costs, and that farmers could recoup their investment by the second year of planting.

What about other important crops in Cameroon? How will they be affected by the predicted changes in climate?

Cassava is an important crop too, and is generally less vulnerable than maize to climate change.

However, although it will be still suitable to grow cassava in the traditional growing areas, climate change might cause an average drop in cassava yields across the country up to 30% by 2090. Losses will vary by region. Those areas where rainfall is expected to remain stable will have smaller losses than areas where rainfall will drop.

So, for cassava, what practices did PIK’s study recommend to adapt to climate change?

One of the practices, which was evaluated for its potential to increase yields and help farmers adapt to climate change is integrated soil fertility management, or ISFM.

What is ISFM?

ISFM is a set of farming practices designed to improve soil fertility, stop degradation of soil, and halt depletion of soil nutrients. It encompasses a variety of practices, along with the knowledge of how to adapt those practices to local conditions, even down to the plot level, while maintaining or improving yields.

ISFM often includes applying organic and inorganic fertilizer, mulching, intercropping, and using farmyard manure, and has been shown to increase yields compared to conventional practices.

How would implementation of ISFM impact cassava yields?

The PIK study found that yields will increase in parts of the Western Highlands, in coastal areas, and in the rainforest area of the south Cameroon plateau, while remaining low or even decreasing in the northern Sahelian zone and the Adamawa plateau. The coastal area and the rainforest in the southern Cameroon plateau have the greatest potential for ISFM, with yield increases of up to 40% by 2050. After 2050, yields decrease in all areas, falling below current yields in all areas, especially the Adamawa Plateau.

PIK also compared the costs and benefits of implementing ISFM practices.

What did they find?

Their study of the cost-effectiveness of ISFM included mulching with Tithonia and mucuna, and found that implementing ISFM would be highly profitable, with the benefits outweighing the costs by a factor of six, and yields increasing by 200%.

That’s interesting. But I have heard that mulching can be both time- and resource-intensive. Is this the case when you use Tithonia and mucuna for mulch?

Yes, the workload for applying Tithonia is very high. It takes 200 person-days to mulch one hectare. But farmers can reduce costs by making the plant more accessible by cultivating it near the farm.

And mulching with mucuna has additional benefits. Mucuna is a potential source of food, especially during those times of the year when food shortages are most critical.

But, just as I mentioned a few minutes ago about maize, there is a challenge that may make it more difficult for women farmers to adopt ISFM. The strong need for labour associated with some aspects of ISFM – and especially heavy labour—may make it particularly difficult for women to adopt.

Did PIK look at the effect of climate change on any other important crops?

Yes, they studied the projected impact of climate change on cocoa. Cameroon was the world’s fourth largest cocoa producer in the latest season. But yields have been stagnant or dwindling, many trees are old, and, to boost production, cocoa growers are expanding into forested areas, contributing to deforestation.

PIK’s study predicts that, up to 2050, there will be little change in the suitability of land in Cameroon for growing cocoa. But after 2050, rising temperatures will result in around 40% of land in the traditional growing areas becoming unsuitable for cocoa production.

Can anything be done to counter that trend?

PIK’s research predicts that growing fruit trees alongside cocoa trees is an agroforestry solution that could help cocoa farmers adapt to the impacts of future climate change.

Please give me a brief definition of agroforestry.

Agroforestry involves trees and farm crops in various ways to take advantage of their positive interactions. In this case, it means planting fruit trees together with cocoa trees.

But how can growing cocoa trees and fruit trees together mitigate the impact of climate change on cocoa production?

Fruit trees can provide shade for cocoa trees, which reduces the negative effects of direct sunlight and heat. In most cocoa production in Cameroon, cocoa trees are already associated with other kinds of trees, either in natural forests or in orchards with fruit, medicinal, or timber trees. For example, safou plums often grows along cocoa.

Ok, so planting useful tree species or allowing them to grow among cocoa trees can lead to various benefits. But don’t the two kinds of trees compete and decrease cocoa yields?

Yes, so it’s important to avoid competition by not planting fruit trees too close to cocoa trees or too densely, as well as by pruning fruit trees appropriately. This ensures that the fruit trees can provide shade without negatively impacting cocoa yields.

You mentioned growing cocoa trees together with the Safou plum. How will climate change effect the suitability of this kind of agroforestry?

Right now, more than half of Cameroon is suitable for and almost half is suitable for systems based on mango. However, both trees have limited suitability in some regions where other shade trees need to be considered. It’s predicted that the area that’s suitable for the safou tree will remain very stable with climate change to 2050 and beyond. This means that these fruit and cocoa trees have a good potential to mitigate the potential negative effects of climate change on cocoa. Both safou and mango are suitable for long-term adaptation, but the suitability of mango will be more limited until 2050.

I assume there are additional costs involved in establishing and maintaining a cocoa agroforestry system with safou or mango compared to monoculture cocoa systems. Will the benefits that farmers receive outweigh their costs? If so, how long will it take for them to recoup their investment?

 

PIK’s research suggests that their investment in stocking a cocoa plantation with fruit trees will pay off in the sixth year after planting. By the second year, the annual cost is zero, and from the fifth year onwards, the trees are both producing fruit and providing shade, and farmers can make a profit of almost 31,000 FCFA per year per hectare. Keep in mind of course, that this was what PIK’s study found for one particular area, and profits would very much depend on local conditions. These profits are mostly due to the additional income farmers can make by marketing the fruits, assuming that markets are available and accessible.

The time it takes to care for the fruit trees can be largely shared with caring for cocoa production, so ongoing maintenance costs are low.

It’s worth noting that, while PIK studied the cocoa agroforestry systems that include safou and mango, there are many trees which are good companion plants to cocoa, and which provide fruits that yield high-value, low volume, long shelf-life products, including bush mango, rjansang, and bitter kola.

Will women benefit from this kind of cocoa agroforestry system as much as men?

More men than women tend to adopt agroforestry in Cameroon—and elsewhere. This may be due to barriers that women face in accessing land, because of gender inequities in farm decision-making, labour, and financing, as well as cultural taboos.

So, to increase women’s adoption of agroforestry, women’s access to land needs to improve, and women need to have greater decision-making power on the farm.

Of course, it’s important to remember, that not all women face the same kinds of challenges or enjoy the same types of opportunities. Different factors can combine to increase the burden on women and other vulnerable social groups and reinforce existing inequalities. For example, a widowed woman farmer from an ethnic minority has very different challenges and opportunities than a married woman farmer from an ethnic majority, even in the same rural community. And if the widowed farmer is older and/or has a disability, it will be even harder for her to adapt to the impact of climate change. Gender is one of many overlapping factors and climate change will likely amplify existing gender-related disadvantages.

Thank you. Please summarize this cocoa agroforestry option for us.

Very briefly, using effective management practices to grow fruit trees such as safou and mango with cocoa trees has significant potential to mitigate the impacts of climate change on cocoa production.

Thanks.Did the PIK study look at any other aspects of agriculture?

Yes. Livestock production is very important in Cameroon. And the ability of land to support good grazing is very important to livestock production.

Climate change has already negatively affected pastoral livelihoods in Cameroon. Dry spells have led to the reduction of pastures and water bodies, and some areas are becoming bare and unproductive. Rising temperatures have led to the emergence of pests like the tse tse fly, which can cause trypanosomiasis and result in livestock deaths. And the variability of rainfall has made it difficult for pastoralists and farmers to predict and plan their activities.

So the study looked at the projected impact of climate change on the “grazing potential” of land in Cameroon.

Please define “grazing potential.”

Grazing potential refers to the carrying capacity of the land in Cameroon, in other words, the maximum amount of grass that would be available to a specific number of livestock. The researchers used the term “potential” because their calculations are based on formulas in the absence of adequate real-world information.

Grazing potential is expected to decrease in Cameroon over the 21st century, moving from small, 3-4% decreases in 2030 to larger decreases, around 10%, by the end of the century. But there are regional differences, with northern areas experiencing an increase in grazing potential and losses being greater in the more humid south.

But it’s important to note that the projected losses in grazing potential in most parts of the country are not just due to the changing climate, but also a result of worsening soil degradation due to continuous grazing. However, soil degradation can be eased by reducing stocking densities, giving pastures resting periods to recover, and managing fires in areas where grazing lands frequently burn.

You’ve given us a lot of think about. If I can summarize the main points you shared from PIK’s research, first you talked about how the climate in Cameroon is predicted to change over the next 30 years, until 2050, and beyond. You said that we are likely to have higher temperatures, possibly increased rainfall, and more frequent extreme temperatures and extreme rainfall events. And then you talked about what farmers could do to best adapt to these changes in temperature and rainfall. You said that there are three kinds of practices that show promise for helping farmers in Cameroon adapt to climate change. In maize, planting improved, heat-tolerant varieties is a recommended practice. For cassava, adopting integrated soil fertility management, or ISFM, practices can be a big help. And for cocoa, growing fruit trees such as safou plum and mango alongside cocoa trees can help reduce the impact of climate change on cocoa production. Finally, you mentioned that grazing potentials are expected to decrease in most parts of the country, but that there are some methods that livestock keepers, farmers, and communities can adopt to counter than trend.

Yes, these are the expected changes to the climate and the evaluated practices for farmers as predicted by the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research. But PIK’s study does not offer silver-bullet solutions. Instead, the study simply evaluated the potential effectiveness of a number of possible options for helping to build a more climate-resilient agri-food system.

Of course, it’s always best for farmers in Cameroon to talk to local and regional experts if they want to adopt any of these practices. The recommendations that work best for individual farmers will depend on their exact individual situation.

Nevertheless, no matter where you live, these are recommendations that farmers in Cameroon should consider seriously—and consider soon.

Thanks so much for this. Today, we’ve discussed the findings of a report from the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research on farmers and crop production in Cameroon.

We’ll be back next week with more from [name of program]. We’ll talk to you then.

Goodbye until next week.