Notes to broadcasters
Note to broadcasters:
Adapting to climate change is a major challenge for African nations, including Uganda. Like other countries, Uganda is developing and implementing plans to adapt to the changing climate. But in order to adapt to these changes, Uganda needs better information on how its climate is expected to change in the future and the risks those changes present.
To help address these gaps in knowledge, a German research institute called the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, or PIK, in collaboration with the National Research Organization or NARO, conducted a thorough scientific assessment of how the Ugandan climate is likely to change over the next several decades. Their assessment generated information not only on how the climate might change, but also how those changes will impact agricultural value chains.
The study also evaluated a number of practices for important Ugandan value chains to assess their potential to help farmers adapt to future climate changes.
This script is a fictionalized conversation between two radio hosts. Host 2 introduces the scientific study from PIK. Host 1 asks questions about the results of the study, and Host 2 responds. The two hosts discuss what the study predicts about how the Ugandan climate will change. They also talk about the farming practices evaluated by the PIK study, and how they can help farmers in Uganda adapt to the changing climate.
You could use this script as a foundation for creating your own program on climate change and how farmers in your area can best adapt to it. Here are some ways to share this information so that your listeners can understand and act on the information they hear:
- If you’re in Uganda, you could invite a climate and / or agricultural scientist, for example from NARO, to discuss the study’s predictions on climate change and what impacts they will have on Ugandan farmers, and to discuss the potential of the practices evaluated by the PIK study to help farmers adapt to the changing climate
- If you’re in another African country, you could invite a climate change expert to discuss how the weather in your country is expected to change. You could also invite an agricultural expert to talk about what kinds of farming practices farmers could use to best cope with the expected changes in climate. The expert could explain why these particular practices have good potential, and then answer questions on how farmers can best implement the practices.
Estimated running time for the script: 20 minutes, with intro and outro music.
Script
HOST 1:
Good morning, everyone, and welcome to today’s program, where we will be talking about climate change.
HOST 2:
Good morning and you are right, we are talking about climate change and we will learn how farmers in Uganda can practice farming methods that can help them adapt to the changing weather.
HOST 1:
Sounds interesting. The economy of Uganda depends on agriculture and most of the population earn their income from it. So it’s very important to know how changes in the weather will affect agriculture.
HOST 2:
Right. A German organization called the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, or PIK, in collaboration with NARO, the National Agricultural Research Organization of Uganda, conducted scientific research that asked two questions: First, how is the Ugandan climate likely to change in the coming decades until the end of the century? And second, what practices can be used along the whole agricultural value chain to adapt to the changing weather patterns, while at the same time ensuring that farmers have enough food and income to support their families?
HOST 1:
Now you have my attention and am sure the listeners will also want to know. So, according to the study, what impact will climate change have on the weather in Uganda over the coming decades?
HOST 2:
During the last four decades, average temperatures in Uganda have risen by about 0.3°C per decade. The study predicts that, by 2050, temperatures in Uganda will increase by between 1.1°C and 1.5°C, compared to 2004. Predictions about precipitation are much more uncertain than projections about temperature. Even though most predictions suggest a slightly wetter future, some parts of the country could experience a drier climate. Similarly, extreme precipitation events may increase, though there is less certainty about that prediction.
I know a 1.1 to 1.5-°C rise in temperature does not sound like much, but the effects on Ugandan farmers and the whole population would be great. It should be noted as well that different parts of the country will warm to different degrees.
The study also predicts that the frequency of extreme temperatures, for example days with temperatures above 35 °C and nights with temperatures above 25 °C, will increase, though differently in different parts of the country. The North will be particularly hard hit.
HOST 1:
How will these changes affect Ugandan farmers?
HOST 2:
Ugandan agriculture heavily relies on rain, so high temperatures and increased rainfall could mean a poor harvest, and it would also affect post-harvest activities like sun-drying of crops like maize. Changes in the intensity, distribution, and timing of rainfall would strongly affect the Ugandan agriculture sector, and could result in concerns over food security and even the stability of the Ugandan economy.
HOST 1:
Are there specific crops that will be affected by the changing weather?
HOST 2:
The whole agricultural sector will be affected by the changing climate. The study looked at two major crops in Uganda: maize, a major food crop, and coffee, both Robusta and Arabica, a major export crop.
HOST 1:
Does the study suggest ways that farmers can reduce the impact of the changing climate so that they are not as seriously affected?
HOST 1:
Well, that’s a bit or a relief. Let’s start with maize.
HOST 2:
Sure. Maize is grown by 1.8 million people in Uganda for food, income, and, increasingly, export. Maize is a crop that is vulnerable to the changing weather. And because it’s such an important food crop, any drop in production could cause food insecurity and financial problems for farmers.
HOST 1:
As you said, maize is very important in Uganda, which means that climate change would affect not just farmers but the whole population. How is climate change expected to affect maize yields in the future?
HOST 2:
The PIK study predicts that maize yields will decrease nationally by an average of 4-6% by 2030, 8-14% by 2050, and 9-27% by 2090. In the north, losses will be more serious: 19% by 2030 and 47% by 2090. When combined with a growing population, these declines in yield could contribute to food and nutrition insecurity and hurt farmers’ finances. Also, farmers may expand the amount of land they farm to compensate for reduced yields, leading to environmental damages such as deforestation and loss of biodiversity.
HOST 1:
Are there any practices that Ugandan maize farmers can adopt to reduce the losses that are predicted from climate change?
HOST 2:
It’s not just farmers who’ll be affected. Climate-related impacts are already affecting the maize value chain beyond maize production. There are impacts already on maize affecting aggregation, processing, trading, and even consumption. Sometimes, these impacts are directly related to the weather, for example when higher humidity leads to more frequent aflatoxin contamination—or when extreme rains cause damage to infrastructure. And sometimes the impacts are indirect. For example, production losses caused by the changing weather can affect later stages of the value chain, causing large fluctuations in maize supply and prices. And further increases in temperature and precipitation would only worsen these impacts.
But to answer your question, yes, there are practices that farmers can use to adapt to the impacts of future climate change. One option studied by PIK is for farmers to grow improved varieties of maize. These are varieties that produce higher yields, are high quality, may provide better resistance to droughts, pests, and diseases. During the current climate, planting these kinds of varieties could on average double the harvest.
HOST 1:
Double the yield? That sounds great, but I am guessing that, as usual, women are less likely to have access to these improved maize seeds.
HOST 2:
Unfortunately, that is correct, according to the report.
HOST 1:
And how will the improved varieties fare with future climate change?
HOST 2:
The study found that planting improved varieties is an effective way to adapt to the changing weather for two reasons. First, as we said, improved varieties double yields, which means that any losses in yield due to rising temperatures and rainfall would have less of an impact on production. Second, and most importantly, the study found that improved varieties will perform as well under the projected future climate in Uganda as they do under current conditions. So, improved varieties can reduce the negative impacts of climate change in most parts of Uganda until the end of the century, even if GHG emissions continue to rise. But it’s also important to ensure that farmers chose improved maize varieties that meet their other needs, for example, that they’re suitable to the local area, that they fit with the farmer’s management practices, and that they’re accessible and available to small-scale farmers. It’s important also to encourage farmers to plant crops such as sorghum, that are naturally more nutritious and resistant to the effects of climate change than maize.
HOST 1:
That’s good news. Ok, let’s briefly touch on any other ways that farmers can adapt their maize production.
HOST 2:
One way that farmers can reduce expected post-harvest losses due to climate change in maize is by using hermetic storage technologies. Hermetic storage technologies are simply sealed, airtight containers that protect the grains from factors such as humidity or pests and diseases.
HOST 1:
Are these technologies expensive and what do they look like?
HOST 2:
They are certainly safer and more affordable than chemical insecticides. Hermetic storage technologies are often special bags with one or more airtight liners. The PIK study reports that climate change is expected to result in higher levels of humidity because of increased temperature and rainfall. These conditions favour the development of mould and aflatoxins in stored maize. But hermetic storage technologies would help prevent the growth of mould and aflatoxin.
HOST 1:
That is very important and informative. Let’s talk about coffee.
HOST 2:
Yes, the study also talks about how climate change will affect Ugandan coffee production and what impacts it will have on farmers and the Ugandan economy. Coffee is an important cash crop in Uganda, and the country is the second largest coffee producer in Africa. About five million people are involved in coffee production and other coffee-related businesses. Robusta coffee is more widely produced in Uganda than Arabica coffee, which can only be grown in the highlands because it is more sensitive to high temperatures.
HOST 1:
Will coffee be affected by future climate change?
HOST 2:
Yes, coffee is very susceptible to the impacts of climate change, and there could be declines in yield, reduced bean quality, and loss of suitable land for coffee production. According to PIK, climate change is expected to reduce the amount of land suitable for Arabica production by about 20% by 2050, though some areas are expected to see small gains in suitability. For Robusta, there will be small decreases in suitable land, resulting in about 5% less suitable land by the end of the century. Most Ugandan coffee farmers intercrop coffee with food crops, most often bananas. So PIK also looked at the impact of climate change on the suitability of land for growing bananas.
HOST 2:
They predict that the amount of land suitable for growing bananas will be reduced will be reduced by between 8% and 25% by the end of the century. There will be regional variations, and the central and south-western regions will remain the most suitable for banana production. Much of this reduction in suitable land will happen in the far south-western and West Nile regions which is most suitable for Arabica production. The area suitable for Robusta-banana intercropping will also gradually drop until the end of the century, with a 5-7% reduction in suitable land by 2090.The coffee-banana intercropping system is sensitive to climate change, and some areas will become suitable only for bananas, while others will only be suitable for coffee. But farmers can cope with by shifting to more drought-resistant varieties of banana and by using irrigation, agroforestry, and better on-field water harvesting and reuse through trenches.
HOST 1:
Will it still be useful to intercrop coffee with bananas, despite these changes?
HOST 2:
Yes, coffee-banana intercropping is important to prevent erosion, provide mulch, and reduce pest and disease problems, in addition to the fact the farmers get income from two crops instead of one.
HOST 1:
As an export crop, I assume that the value chain for coffee in Uganda is complex. What are the expected impacts of climate change on the larger coffee value chain?
HOST 2:
The impacts of climate change are already being felt in the post-harvest parts of the coffee value chain, and these are expected to get worse with future changes in the climate. For example, increased humidity and shifts in the rainy season make it more difficult to dry coffee. A drop in bean quality due to changing climate conditions will make it more difficult to sell at a good price. On top of that, the coffee value chain is strongly affected by the international market. Coffee prices are set internationally and depend on the global coffee supply. So climate shocks in other countries affect Uganda, and people engaged in the Ugandan coffee value chain must take these kinds of strong fluctuations in global coffee prices into account when making business decisions.
HOST 1:
Did the PIK study evaluate any particular methods for reducing the impact of climate change on coffee production and the rest of the value chain?
HOST 2:
Yes, they looked at both agroforestry systems and better coffee storage.
HOST 1:
OK. Let’s talk about agroforestry first.
HOST 2:
As I mentioned, most Ugandan coffee is already grown in coffee-banana agroforestry systems, where shading from bananas benefits coffee trees. But, unlike other types of shade trees, banana plants are sensitive to drought. The Uganda Coffee Development Authority recommends several other kinds of shade trees that farmers can plant for both Robusta and Arabica agroforestry systems, including
Ficus natalensis and
Cordia africana.
Cordia africana is particularly valuable to farmers as a source of timber. Ficus species like
Ficus natalensis are useful as windbreaks in coffee plots, and provide many cultural, ecological, and medicinal benefits, which is why they are so common in Ugandan coffee agroforestry systems. So PIK studied coffee agroforestry systems using these two kinds of shading species to see whether they could reduce the loss in the amount of land that will be suitable to grow coffee in Uganda.
HOST 1:
And what did the study find?
HOST 2:
Growing shade trees could potentially prevent between half and all of the losses in areas suitable for growing Arabica and Robusta coffee by the end of century. There are two shade trees which could be particularly useful. Of the two species,
Ficus natalensis is more resilient to climate change than
Cordia africana, and therefore is more effective at preventing losses of suitable for both coffee varieties. In northern Uganda, a combined agroforestry system of
Cordia africana and
Ficus natalensis is recommended, while
Ficus natalensis is recommended for the central, western, and southern parts of the country.
HOST 1:
Investing in agroforestry systems like these surely costs money. Is this kind of agroforestry economically beneficial for a coffee farmer?
HOST 2:
The PIK study predicts that establishing an agroforestry system with the two shade species I mentioned will have economic benefits that are almost 20 times as high as the farmers’ costs, and that farmers will recoup their initial investment by the third year of planting. There are also a number of other benefits that make agroforestry a highly recommendable adaptation strategy for coffee production. Agroforestry brings many benefits. It helps protect crops from strong winds, pests, and disease. It also improves the local climate and increases biodiversity. In addition, it provides different ways for farmers to earn money and even helps to trap carbon, thereby reducing the impact of climate change. One thing we should mention here is that more men than women tend to adopt agroforestry in Uganda—and elsewhere. This may be due to some of the barriers that women face: in accessing land, and because of gender inequities in farm decision-making, labour, and financing, as well as cultural taboos. So, to increase women’s adoption of agroforestry, women’s access to land needs to improve, and women need to have greater decision-making power on the farm. Of course, gender-related inequities like these are just one of many overlapping factors that will be exacerbated by climate change. It’s also important to remember that not all women face the same kinds of challenges or enjoy the same types of opportunities. For example, a widowed woman farmer from an ethnic minority has very different challenges and opportunities than a married woman farmer from an ethnic majority, even in the same community. And if the widowed farmer is older and/or has a disability, it will be even harder for her to adapt to the impact of climate change by, for example, adopting agroforestry practices.
HOST 1:
Thanks for that reminder. You mentioned that the PIK study also evaluated improved coffee storage as a way to reduce the future impacts of climate change. Tell me about improved coffee storage.
HOST 2:
The temperature and humidity inside a storage facility effects not only the extent of post-harvest losses, but also the quality of the coffee—and thus the selling price. If coffee beans become moist because of leaky tarpaulins or high humidity, coffee can develop mould, have a musty flavour, or have reduced levels of acid that result in lower quality coffee. Sometimes, coffee farmers store their beans in polypropylene storage bags. The PIK study looked at whether substituting gunny or jute bags stored on high-quality pallets off the ground would reduce the expected impacts of the changing climate. What they found is that investing in better bags and pallets would pay off for farmers immediately. The extra income they would receive by avoiding post-harvest losses far exceeds their costs. By the second year, farmers should enjoy considerable profits.
HOST 1:
Thanks so much for this.
Well, it’s time to wrap up. I’ll try to summarize some of the key points you’ve made on the program today. You mentioned that a study by the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research found that the Uganda climate is expected to get hotter by 1.1-1.5°C by 2050, and that, especially in northern Uganda, extreme temperature events will increase. The study found that maize yields will decrease, and that this will get worse as we move closer to the end of the century. On a more positive note, the study found that planting improved maize varieties is one way to reduce these losses, and that hermetic storage technologies such as airtight storage bags could reduce losses at the post-harvest stage. The PIK study also looked at coffee, and predicts an increasing loss of suitable land for coffee production in Uganda. However, these losses could be cushioned by investing in agroforestry systems with two shade trees, Cordia africana and Ficus natalensis, and by substituting gunny or jute bags stored on high-quality pallets off the ground for the current polypropylene storage bags.
HOST 2:
You’ve got it. Thanks for the summary. It’s been a pleasure sharing these insights with our listeners today, and we look forward to talking with you on next week’s program. Thanks for listening and goodbye.
HOST 1:
Goodbye until next week.
Acknowledgements
Contributed by: Winnie Onyimbo, Trans World Radio, Nairobi, Kenya
Reviewed by: Carla Cronauer, project manager; Sophie von Loeben, doctoral researcher and research analyst
This script was produced with support from the Potsdam Institute of Climate Impact Research (PIK). PIK is a scientific research institute and has the twofold mission of advancing scientific research in the field of interdisciplinary climate impact research for global sustainability and contributing knowledge and solutions for a safe and just climate future. Farm Radio International and PIK have been working together successfully since 2019 to disseminate the results of climate risk analyses on Ghana, Ethiopia, Burkina Faso Niger, Cameroon, Uganda, and Zambia.
Information sources
Von Loeben, S., Abigaba, D., Adriko, J., Awori, E., Cartsburg, M., Chemura, A., Cronauer, C., Lipka, N., Murken, L., Muzafarova, A., Noleppa, S., Romanovska, P., Tomalka, J., Weituschat, CS., Zvolsky, A. & Gornott, C. (2023). Climate risk analysis for adaptation planning in Uganda’s agricultural sector: An assessment of maize and coffee value chains. A report prepared by the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) in cooperation with the Deutsche Gesellschaft für Internationale Zusammenarbeit (GIZ) GmbH on behalf of the German Federal Ministry for Economic Cooperation and Development (BMZ), DOI: 10.48485/pik.2023.021.
You can find the complete climate risk analysis at https://agrica.de/.
